Forecasting Educational Indicators Through Collective Future Bets at eduNexus.at within Austria's B3

Slides from the presentation of our paper at SITE Conference 2026

Education systems increasingly rely on indicators to guide policy and practice. However, the underlying assumptions of these indicators are rarely discussed collectively. This short article reports on a future-oriented, game-based "future bet" conducted as part of the "Educational Innovation Needs Educational Research" (B3) initiative at the eduNexus.at retreat in Austria. Doctoral students, supervisors, and experts placed tokens on measurable hypotheses. We focus on five hypotheses from these funded doctoral programs closely linked to technology policy and practice: teacher training in computer science and digital education; open education resource certificate holders; the school dropout rate; and the number of schools with a STEM quality label.